Tablets At CES - Will They Bring Down the iPad?

The popularity of the iPad brought a slew of tablets hoping to get a piece of market share from Apple. Engaget has a great article including a comparison of the tablets featured at the Computer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas. Regardless of the manufacturer or features, one thing is fore certain, personal computing is about to make a big change.

Years ago personal computers were large and disconnected. Before the Internet sharing information was limited to a few kilobytes on floppy discs that had to be physically brought to the other person, the process was as slow as snail mail.

A few years later in the 1990's the Internet was born and file sharing became so much easier. We could email messages in moments and share images created by our new digital cameras. The problem was most people still found computers to be confusing and difficult to use.

Apple computers tried to make the process easier by creating the iMac computer, a more user-friendly device that wasn't prone to viral attacks or constant crashing. That computer ultimately came in the form of the iPad, a computer that is not about creating or managing content and more about consuming all that the Internet can offer in the form of text, video, and photos.

Now companies like Sony and Dell are working to become the #2 tablet maker with a host of features that might trump that of the iPad, but still has to match the incredible user interface that Apple developed.

My prediction? The race for tablets will be similar to the fight for smartphones. Apple creates a better product and makes calculated upgrades (with the exception of the latest iPhone 4). Other manufacturers  work hard to compete but they end up competing with themselves. In the end Apple's market share in the tablet market will decrease, but their sales will double what it was last year.

My iPad Predictions

As we get closer to the release of the iPad, I thought I'd go on record with my predictions as to the impact of this highly anticipated Apple product. First, I think the iPad will be a success. I believe Apple will reach their benchmarks and celebrate the iPad's first year. Small crowds will form around those lucky few with the device while showing off the thousands of apps already available for it. This will truly be Apple's day in the sun and they deserve it.

Unfortunately Apple is going to have to work to keep their market share in the niche category they created. Coming out soon is the Joo Joo, a similar device scheduled to ship later this month. I'm not sure of the price, but the rest of the specs look to strike directly at the iPad with many of the same features. I would also bet Google is working on their version of the iPad that would work with their upcoming OS (Chrome) and leverage their own app store for their Nexus One phone.

In the end the winner will be the consumer. With so much competition it will be interesting to see who comes out ahead in the next couple of years. As far as I can see, it looks to shake out like the cell phone wars with Apple becoming the leader everyone chases.