My Top Prediction For 2011 - Death of the Internet

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Happy New Year! As with most blogs and podcasts, it is time for some new year predictions:

1) Net Neutrality will be the biggest story of 2011. With sites like Netflix and Youtube gaining popularity, more people will be ready to cut their cable services and stick with their broadband Internet connection to deliver their entertainment content. The problem is broadband services are controlled by the same people who give us regular cable, and that service is far too profitable for the cable companies to give up.

The problem of Net Neutrality is a far larger one than anyone could imagine. This problem alone could wipe out the Internet as we know it. Basically the problem has to do with the cost of distribution, according the the economics of the Internet it costs more to deliver content to more people. This is not the old days where a station would broadcast a signal and all the antennas within range would watch the show. Now to watch a show on the Internet bits need to move along a pipe which is metered on mobile devices, but not on home connections. This would all change according to new Net Neutrality guidelines developed by the cable companies.

Imagine having to pay per page you view. Pay $.05 for that Youtube video, or $.02 for the sports article. At the end of the month your paying for every page view which could amount to much more than the normal monthly subscription cost. Within a month or two people will notice the change in their bill and wonder what is going on and begin to make changes to their Internet usage immediately sites like Facebook will suffer massive user declines and Youtube will become a ghost town.

At first people will get upset and try to do something about this outrage. Companies like Google will continue with their effort to provide broadband to the masses, and new opportunities will be there for companies that can give the people what they want. 2011 will be a pivotal year for Net Neutrality as profits remain stagnate and economic recovery is still far off on the horizon. In the end it will be the cable companies that will win to keep their share of the pie leaving the rest of us wondering if we will ever have our cake and eat it too.

Don't get me wrong, I believe an open Internet is what our world needs most for communication and innovation, but at this point I don't see any way out of this mess.